Faatasi ai ma le taʻitaʻifono a le Federal Reserve Jerome Powell o loʻo sauni e tuʻuina atu se lauga taua i le Aso Faraile, e mafai e le aufaipisinisi ona amata ona ave o ia i lana upu: O le faletupe tutotonu o le a tumau pea se tulaga hawkish e pulea ai le maualuga o tau i le fa sefulu tausaga. O lona uiga o maketi tau tupe o le a tumau pea le le mautonu, e ui i le faʻatupulaia o maketi talu ai nei.
E tele mafua'aga e tatau ai ona manatu fa'atauva'a fa'afaigaluega o fanua, po'o REIT, e fai ma malutaga saogalemu e maua ai tupe maua tumau pe a tumau pea le maualuga o le tau ma i luma atu o le fa'agesegese o le tamaoaiga.
O lo'o i lalo se fa'aaliga o REIT tutusa e fa'amoemoe e maua mai ai le tele o tinoitupe e mafai ai ona si'itia tufatufaga i le 2023.
I le Manaomia ia Iloa koluma i le aso 24 o Aokuso, na aoteleina ai e Steve Goldstein valoaga o se "fou"supercycle i le tau o tupe ma tului” mai ia Dario Perkins, pule faatonu mo le tamaoaiga o le lalolagi i le TS Lombard.
O loʻo faʻamoemoeina e Perkins le faʻatupulaia o tului mo taimi uumi, ma fautua mai o le 2020s o le a manaʻomia ai le aufaipisinisi e fai "se auala e sili atu ona iloatino le faʻasoaina o aseta."
O le alu ese mai kamupani e tuʻuina atu auaunaga na puleaina le maketi povi e oʻo atu i le 2021, na ia talitonu o le mea e sili ona aoga o le tuʻufaʻatasia i aseta moni, e aofia ai ma fanua.
Tuʻu i lalo le vaega REIT
O fa'atauga fa'atauga fa'atau fanua e maua mai i le tele o ituaiga, ae o le elemene autu latou te pasi atu i le tele o tupe maua i tagata e umia sea e fa'atumauina le fa'atulagaina o le REIT fa'aletupe.
E lua vaega lautele o REITs: Mortgage REITs, lea e nono mai ai tupe i pisinisi po'o tagata nofo aitalafu ma/po'o teu fa'afaigaluega i mokesi-backed securities, ma equity REITs, lea e umia pisinisi po'o fale nofomau ma lisi atu.
REIT e fa'ata'amilomilo, fa'atasi ai ma tau fa'atatau a'o si'itia tului. O lenei aafiaga e mafai ona faʻapitoa mo REITs mokesi, ona o le pisinisi mokesi-noitupe e faʻagesegese pe a faʻatupulaia tului.
E oʻo mai i le tausaga nei, e oʻo atu ia Aukuso 24, o le S&P 500 fanua faʻatau fale ua paʻu i lalo 15%, ae o le S&P 500 atoa.
SPX
ua pa'u i lalo i le 12%, ma tufatufaga toe teu fa'afaigaluega.
O le faia o se va'aiga umi atu e ono faate'ia ai oe. O le S&P Dow Jones Indices na vavaeeseina le vaega o fanua mai le vaega tau tupe i le 2016. Ae afai tatou te vavalalata i le vaega o pisinisi a le S&P 500 REIT mo se fuataga umi o le faatinoga, o le 20-tausaga averesi tausaga faaletausaga ua 9.9%, teisi i luma. o le S&P 500's 20-tausaga averesi toe faafoi o le 9.8%.
REITs i vaega
O ituaiga REIT eseese e alu i ta'amilosaga tau tamaoaiga eseese. Mo se faʻataʻitaʻiga, o REITs faletalimalo ma o latou tagata nofoia na matua pagatia i le amataga o le faʻamaʻi o le coronavirus, amata i le tapunia faʻapitoa o pisinisi femalagaaʻi i le afa muamua o le 2020.
O le tele o REITs o loʻo taulaʻi atu i le fale teu oloa ma logistics, lea na faʻamanuiaina mai le faʻaluaina o le tau o le lisi o le tausaga i tausaga talu ai, e tusa ai ma le Vikram Malhotra, o se pule faʻatonu mo fanua faʻatau i Mizuho.
Ae o le Amazon.com Inc.
AMZN
fai mai i lona fa'asalalauga fa'aletupe o le kuata muamua ia Aperila ina ua uma ona faaluaina le tele o lona faʻataunuʻuina fesoʻotaʻiga i le na o le lua tausaga, ua "le toe tuliloaina le malosi faaletino poʻo le aufaigaluega" ma "ua taulaʻi tutusa i le faʻaleleia atili o le gaosiga ma le faʻaleleia o tau" i ana atinaʻe tuʻuina atu.
I le taimi o se faatalanoaga, na taʻua ai e Malhotra e faapea, ina ua maeʻa le faʻasalalauga a Amazon, o ia ma ana paʻaga na "mataʻituina ma faʻalogo i le maketi o loʻo tuʻuina e Amazon ni fale teu oloa i luga o le maketi sublet."
"O lea na taʻu atu e le tagata sili ona tele i le e-commerce i le maketi e tele naua ma o loʻo faʻamaonia, ma na mafua ai ona faʻaititia le tau o oloa," o lana tala lea.
Prologis Inc.
PLD
o le US REIT pito sili ona tele fa'atau fa'alaua'itele i faleteuoloa ma avanoa fa'atau. O le kamupani na lisiina Amazon, FedEx Corp.
FDX,
Fale Depot Inc.
HD,
Geodis ma Walmart Inc.
WMT
o ana tagata fa'atau e to'alima i le fa'ai'uga o le 2021, fa'atasi ai ma le mautotogi a Amazon i le 24 miliona sikuea mita, po'o le 7% o lona aofa'i.
O sea o Prologis na paʻu i lalo i le 21% mo le 2022 e oʻo ia Aukuso 24, faʻatasi ai ma tufatufaga toe teu faʻafaigaluega. E tusa ma le 2.5%. Prologs ua sauni e maua le Duke Realty Corp.
DRE
e ala i o se fefa'ataua'iga uma e tusa ma le $26 piliona ina ua faalauiloa ia Iuni.
O Mizuho o loʻo i ai se tulaga faʻaituau i luga o Prologis, lea na taʻua e Malhotra e "leai se maliega." E mautinoa lava - i totonu o le 17 tagata suʻesuʻe na suʻesuʻeina e FactSet, 13 fuaina sea o se "faʻatau" poʻo le tutusa. O isi o fa'ailoga e le tutusa.
Na ia faʻapea mai o Mizuho o loʻo mataʻituina le aufaipisinisi faʻapitoa lona tolu, pei ole XPO Logistics Inc.
XPO,
FedEx ma United Parcel Service Inc.
lugā
mo fa'ailoga o le fa'agesegese o mana'oga pe a matua pa'u le tamaoaiga.
Faatasi ai ma mea uma na fai mai, atonu e i ai se laina siliva mo le faleteuoloa / logistics REITs: Malhotra faʻamoemoe le faʻatupulaia o le lisi i le avanoa e faʻagesegese i le "ogatotonu i numera tasi maualuga" mai le tulaga o loʻo i ai nei i luga ole 10%. Fai mai le Matagaluega o Leipa o le Consumer Price Index ia Iulai na faʻaalia ai le 8.5% faʻaopoopoga mai le tausaga na muamua atu. Na faʻaleleia lena mai le 9.1% i le masina talu ai. Atonu e le o se fa'alavelave tele le fa'amoemoe e mafai e tagata fa'atau fale teu oloa a le REIT ona fa'atumauina le fa'atuputeleina o a latou lisi e fa'afetaui pe fa'ato'ilalo le saoasaoa o le tau o le tau.
O le mea lea e sau ai lou lava manatu, e faʻatatau i au lava suʻesuʻega. Mata o le fa'aauau pea o fa'atauga i luga ole laiga ma le mana'omia mo le fa'aolaina vave e mafai ai e Prologis ma ana tagata tauva ona fa'asili i luga i le isi lima i le 10 tausaga? Prologis '24 tausaga le aofaʻi atoa e ui o Aukuso 138 e 85% (faʻatusatusa i le 500% mo le S&P XNUMX), e oʻo lava i le tosoina tele o lenei tausaga.
Su'esu'eina le tutusa REITs
Ina ia vaʻavaʻai lautele i faʻatauga faʻatauga faʻatau fanua faʻatau a Amerika, na matou amata i le 185 o loʻo aofia i le Russell 3000 Index.
AUALA.
O lenei faʻasinomaga e fai ma sui o le 98% o US stocks, e tusa ai ma FactSet.
Ona matou vaʻavaʻai lea i faʻatonuga o tupe teufaafaigaluega a REIT taʻitasi ma aveese uma REIT mokesi e aumai le lisi i lalo i le 158 kamupani. Na matou tipi atili i kamupani e 112 lea na maua ai le maliega autasi i le itiiti ifo ma le lima tagata suʻesuʻe na suʻesuʻeina e le FactSet mo tupe fetuutuunai mai galuega i le 2023.
O se auala e fuaina ai le gafatia o le totogiina o tufatufaga a le kamupani o le vaʻavaʻai lea i le fua faʻatatau o tinoitupe - o totoe o tinoitupe pe a maeʻa tupe faʻaalu fuafuaina. Mo REITs, o tupe mai fa'agaioiga (FFO) - o se fua e le o se GAAP - e masani ona fa'aaogaina. E fa'aopoopo e le FFO le fa'aitiitiga ma le fa'aitiitiga (aitema e leai ni tupe) i tupe maua, ae le aofia ai tupe maua mai le fa'atau atu o meatotino. Fa'aopoopo tupe mai fa'agaioiga (AFFO) e fa'agasolo atili, fa'amama tupe fa'aalu e fa'amoemoeina e fa'atumauina ai le tulaga lelei o tupe teu fa'afaigaluega.
Afai tatou te vaevaeina le AFFO fuafuaina a le kamupani i lona tau sea o loʻo i ai nei, o loʻo i ai le tatou fua faʻatatau o le AFFO. E mafai ona fa'atusa lea ma le fa'asoa o lo'o iai nei e va'ai ai pe o iai le "headroom" mo nisi fa'aopoopoga - fa'amoemoe tele le potu ulu.
Faatasi ai ma le 112 REITs o loʻo totoe, 104 totogi tufatufaga ma faʻatatau i le 2023 potu ulu o le itiiti ifo i le 1.00% - o le matou tipi mulimuli lea.
Na matou tuʻuina le 104 REITs i ni vaega lautele se valu. E le faigofie i taimi uma, aua o le REIT e mafai ona matua fa'avasegaina. O lea la o vaega o se taumafaiga e tuʻu taʻitasi REIT i se vaega e tusa ai ma lana faʻatonuga sili ona mamafa. Ona matou tu'ufa'atasia teisi atu i le iva vaega lautele ma fa'avasega i latou e fa'atatau i le 2023 AFFO fua mai.
Mo se faʻataʻitaʻiga, o kamupani teu oloa / faʻatau oloa o loʻo i totonu o le vaega " alamanuia". O le a tatou amata i lena.
Industrial REITs
O REIT nei e 10 na pasia le lau, ma le maualuga o le AFFO faʻamoemoeina mo le 2023:
| Company | Togi | Fuafuaina 2023 AFFO fua | Tuuina atu o tufatufaga i le taimi nei | Fuafuaina “potu ulu” | Maketi tapuni ($ mil) |
| Industrial Logistics Properties Trust | ILPT | 14.65% | 0.49% | 14.16% | $536 |
| Global Net Lease Inc. | LNG | 12.66% | 11.30% | 1.36% | $1,468 |
| Plymouth Industrial REIT Inc. | PLYM | 7.76% | 4.24% | 3.53% | $833 |
| Broadstone Net Lease Inc. | BNL | 7.12% | 5.35% | 1.77% | $3,497 |
| Stag Industrial Inc. | NOFOAGA | 6.31% | 4.49% | 1.82% | $5,823 |
| WP Carey Inc. | WPC | 6.28% | 4.93% | 1.35% | $16,563 |
| PotlatchDeltic Corp. | PCH | 5.75% | 3.72% | 2.03% | $3,281 |
| CatchMark Timber Trust Inc. Vasega A | CTT | 4.43% | 2.77% | 1.66% | $534 |
| Americold Realty Trust Inc. | Faʻaalia | 3.92% | 2.88% | 1.04% | $8,232 |
| Prologis Inc. | PLD | 3.88% | 2.41% | 1.47% | $97,078 |
| Punavai: FactSet |
Kiliki i luga o fa'ailoga mo nisi fa'amatalaga e uiga i kamupani ta'itasi, e aofia ai fa'amatalaga pisinisi. Ona faitau Tomi Kilgore's fa'amatalaga au'ili'ili i le tamaoaiga o fa'amatalaga o lo'o maua fua ile MarketWatch quote page.
Soifua lelei
O REIT uma ia e iva o lo'o lisiina atu meatotino mo le soifua maloloina ma pasia le lau. O lenei vaega e le aofia ai kamupani e taulaʻi i fale sinia:
| Company | Togi | Fuafuaina 2023 AFFO fua | Tuuina atu o tufatufaga i le taimi nei | Fuafuaina “potu ulu” | Maketi tapuni ($ mil) |
| Falema'i Meatotino Trust Inc. | MPW | 9.94% | 7.63% | 2.31% | $9,111 |
| Global Medical REIT Inc. | GMRE | 9.86% | 7.41% | 2.44% | $742 |
| Sabra Health Care REIT Inc. | SBRA | 9.82% | 7.74% | 2.08% | $3,582 |
| Innovative Industrial Properties Inc. | IIRP | 9.50% | 7.22% | 2.27% | $2,710 |
| CareTrust REIT Inc. | CTRE | 7.71% | 5.08% | 2.62% | $2,101 |
| Community Healthcare Trust Inc. | CHCT | 6.73% | 4.53% | 2.21% | $973 |
| Healthpeak Properties Inc. | Tumutumu | 5.79% | 4.43% | 1.36% | $14,617 |
| Healthcare Realty Trust Inc. Vasega A | HR | 5.50% | 1.69% | 3.81% | $9,826 |
| Well Tower Inc. | Vaʻai | 4.43% | 3.15% | 1.28% | $35,916 |
| Punavai: FactSet |
Nofo
O lenei vaega e aofia ai REITs e iai fale nofo tasi-aiga po'o le tele o aiga, fa'apea fo'i ma fale faufale ma fale matutua. O REITs nei e 10 na pasia le lau:
| Company | Togi | Fuafuaina 2023 AFFO fua | Tuuina atu o tufatufaga i le taimi nei | Fuafuaina “potu ulu” | Maketi tapuni ($ mil) |
| National Health Investors Inc. | NHI | 6.90% | 5.41% | 1.49% | $2,971 |
| LTC Properties Inc. | LTC | 6.71% | 5.14% | 1.57% | $1,797 |
| BRT Apartments Corp. | BRT | 6.22% | 4.07% | 2.15% | $464 |
| UMH Properties Inc. | HMU | 5.88% | 4.35% | 1.52% | $1,005 |
| NexPoint Residential Trust Inc. | NXRT | 5.82% | 2.64% | 3.18% | $1,477 |
| Apartment Inc.ome REIT Corp | AIRC | 5.60% | 4.16% | 1.44% | $6,672 |
| Ventas Inc. | VTR | 5.56% | 3.73% | 1.83% | $19,282 |
| Independence Realty Trust Inc. | IRT | 5.33% | 2.74% | 2.59% | $4,541 |
| Nofoaga Tutotonu | CSR | 5.26% | 3.70% | 1.56% | $1,215 |
| Washington Real Estate Investment Trust | FAIA | 5.02% | 3.39% | 1.63% | $1,753 |
| Punavai: FactSet |
Faletalimalo ma fale faafiafia
O REIT nei e valu o lo'o lisiina atu faletalimalo ma/po'o fale fa'afiafia ma pasia le lau:
| Company | Togi | Fuafuaina 2023 AFFO fua | Tuuina atu o tufatufaga i le taimi nei | Fuafuaina “potu ulu” | Maketi tapuni ($ mil) |
| Uiga o le EPR | EPR | 10.80% | 7.13% | 3.67% | $3,470 |
| RLJ Lodging Trust | RLJ | 10.75% | 1.56% | 9.19% | $2,085 |
| Park Hotels & Resorts Inc. | PK | 10.48% | 0.27% | 10.21% | $3,287 |
| Pebblebrook Faletalimalo Trust | PEB | 10.12% | 0.21% | 9.91% | $2,511 |
| Apple Hospitality REIT Inc. | APOLI | 9.62% | 5.03% | 4.58% | $3,820 |
| Host Hotels & Resorts Inc. | Hst | 8.47% | 2.57% | 5.90% | $13,366 |
| Gaming and Leisure Properties Inc. | GLPI | 7.36% | 5.53% | 1.83% | $13,090 |
| VICI meatotino Inc. | VICI | 5.98% | 4.24% | 1.74% | $32,736 |
| Punavai: FactSet |
Ofisa
O REIT nei e 10 o loʻo umia fale ofisa na pasia le lau:
| Company | Togi | Fuafuaina 2023 AFFO fua | Tuuina atu o tufatufaga i le taimi nei | Fuafuaina “potu ulu” | Maketi tapuni ($ mil) |
| Brandywine Realty Trust | BDN | 10.88% | 9.27% | 1.61% | $1,407 |
| Hudson Pacific Properties Inc. | HPP | 9.91% | 7.28% | 2.62% | $1,945 |
| SL Green Realty Corp. | SLG | 9.85% | 8.11% | 1.74% | $2,957 |
| Douglas Emmett Inc. | IED | 9.25% | 5.48% | 3.77% | $3,595 |
| Highwoods Properties Inc. | HI W | 8.51% | 6.27% | 2.24% | $3,358 |
| Paramount Group Inc. | PGRE | 8.25% | 4.30% | 3.95% | $1,625 |
| Cousins Properties Inc. | CUZ | 7.38% | 4.52% | 2.86% | $4,290 |
| Mavaega Tausi Meatotino a Ofisa Autasi | OFC | 7.17% | 4.18% | 2.99% | $2,959 |
| Easterly Government Properties Inc. | DEA | 6.95% | 5.75% | 1.19% | $1,673 |
| City Office REIT Inc. | IOIOI | 6.94% | 6.45% | 0.50% | $516 |
| Punavai: FactSet |
taʻitasi
O REIT nei e 10 e masani ona lisiina atu fale faʻatau na pasia le lau:
| Company | Togi | Fuafuaina 2023 AFFO fua | Tuuina atu o tufatufaga i le taimi nei | Fuafuaina “potu ulu” | Maketi tapuni ($ mil) |
| Macerich Co. | Mac | 14.68% | 6.02% | 8.65% | $2,139 |
| Simon Property Group Inc. | SPG | 10.53% | 6.56% | 3.97% | $34,922 |
| Tanger Factory Outlet Centres Inc. | SKT | 9.21% | 4.93% | 4.28% | $1,694 |
| Agaga Realty Capital Inc. | SRC | 8.69% | 6.27% | 2.42% | $5,763 |
| Whitestone REIT | WSR | 8.51% | 4.59% | 3.92% | $516 |
| Store Capital Corp. | STOR | 8.35% | 5.58% | 2.77% | $7,802 |
| RPT Moni | RPT | 8.11% | 5.13% | 2.98% | $863 |
| Kite Realty Group Trust | KRG | 7.80% | 4.03% | 3.76% | $4,455 |
| Getty Realty Corp. | GTY | 7.25% | 5.42% | 1.83% | $1,413 |
| Acadia Realty Trust | AKR | 7.22% | 4.33% | 2.89% | $1,577 |
| Punavai: FactSet |
fesootaiga
O kamupani uma nei e lima na pasia le lau na lisiina atu meatotino o fesoʻotaʻiga, pe, i le tulaga o Outfront Media Inc.
OUT,
laupapa fa'ailoga:
| Company | Togi | Fuafuaina 2023 AFFO fua | Tuuina atu o tufatufaga i le taimi nei | Fuafuaina “potu ulu” | Maketi tapuni ($ mil) |
| Uniti Group Inc. | UNIT | 18.95% | 6.24% | 12.72% | $2,282 |
| Outfront Media Inc. | OUT | 11.73% | 6.40% | 5.33% | $3,078 |
| Crown Castle Inc. | CCI | 4.39% | 3.36% | 1.02% | $75,713 |
| AmericanTower Corp. | AMT | 4.11% | 2.09% | 2.02% | $123,138 |
| SBA Communications Corp. Vasega A | SBAC | 3.99% | 0.85% | 3.1s3% | $35,920 |
| Punavai: FactSet |
Nofoaga fa'amaumauga
O nei faʻamaumauga-center REITs e tolu na pasia le lau:
| Company | Togi | Fuafuaina 2023 AFFO fua | Tuuina atu o tufatufaga i le taimi nei | Fuafuaina “potu ulu” | Maketi tapuni ($ mil) |
| Iron Mountain Inc. | MRI | 7.62% | 4.54% | 3.08% | $15,828 |
| Digital Realty Trust Inc. | DLR | 5.56% | 3.88% | 1.67% | $36,110 |
| Equinix Inc. | EQIX | 4.74% | 1.85% | 2.89% | $61,154 |
| Punavai: FactSet |
Taofi a le tagata lava ia
Mo la matou vaega mulimuli, e lima REIT e teu ai le tagata na pasia le lau:
| Company | Togi | Fuafuaina 2023 AFFO fua | Tuuina atu o tufatufaga i le taimi nei | Fuafuaina “potu ulu” | Maketi tapuni ($ mil) |
| National Storage Affiliates Faʻatuatuaina | NSA | 5.35% | 4.03% | 1.31% | $5,007 |
| CubeSmart | pusa | 5.27% | 3.52% | 1.75% | $10,958 |
| Life Storage Inc. | LSI | 4.83% | 3.21% | 1.62% | $11,340 |
| Faʻamaumauga a le Malo | PSA | 4.64% | 2.33% | 2.31% | $60,213 |
| Extra Space Storage Inc. | EXR | 4.27% | 2.89% | 1.38% | $27,811 |
| Punavai: FactSet |
Afai e te fiafia i le REIT avanoa, e tatau ona e faia lau oe lava suʻesuʻega ma teu i lou mafaufau au sini faʻafaigaluega - tuputupu aʻe, tupe maua poʻo mea uma e lua - ma sauni e tumau mo le umi, o lona uiga o ni nai tausaga.
Faatasi ai ma le REIT o loʻo lisiina i luga o laulau, i luga, o Malhotra o loʻo i ai le "faʻatau" faʻatatau ile Ventas Inc.
VTR,
Well Tower Inc.
Vaʻai,
Falema'i Meatotino Trust Inc.
MPW,
Paramount Group Inc.
PGRE
ma Duke Realty (lea o loʻo fefaʻatauaʻi nei i le laina ma Prologis, i le faʻamoemoe e maeʻa le tuʻufaʻatasiga).
Ina ua fesiligia pe o le a le mea e tutusa ai le REIT, fai mai Malhotra: "O kamupani nei, i le avea ai ma tagata taʻitoʻatasi, matou te talitonu o le a tumau pea le tau."
Na ia taʻua foʻi e faʻamanuiaina uma mai faiga faʻavae, e aofia ai, mo le soifua maloloina REITs, le matua o le faitau aofaʻi.
Fa'alogo mai ia Ray Dalio ile MarketWatch's Manatu Fou Sili i Tupe Fa'afiafia i le aso 21 ma le 22 o Setema i Niu Ioka. O le paionia hedge-fund e iai ni manatu malolosi i le mea e agai i ai le tamaoaiga.
Punavai: https://www.marketwatch.com/story/these-dividend-stocks-can-protect-you-as-the-federal-reserve-slows-the-economy-11661443792?siteid=yhoof2&yptr=yahoo
O nei tufatufaga fa'asoa e mafai ona puipuia oe a'o fa'agesegese le tamaoaiga a le Federal Reserve
Faatasi ai ma le taʻitaʻifono a le Federal Reserve Jerome Powell o loʻo sauni e tuʻuina atu se lauga taua i le Aso Faraile, e mafai e le aufaipisinisi ona amata ona ave o ia i lana upu: O le faletupe tutotonu o le a tumau pea se tulaga hawkish e pulea ai le maualuga o tau i le fa sefulu tausaga. O lona uiga o maketi tau tupe o le a tumau pea le le mautonu, e ui i le faʻatupulaia o maketi talu ai nei.
E tele mafua'aga e tatau ai ona manatu fa'atauva'a fa'afaigaluega o fanua, po'o REIT, e fai ma malutaga saogalemu e maua ai tupe maua tumau pe a tumau pea le maualuga o le tau ma i luma atu o le fa'agesegese o le tamaoaiga.
O lo'o i lalo se fa'aaliga o REIT tutusa e fa'amoemoe e maua mai ai le tele o tinoitupe e mafai ai ona si'itia tufatufaga i le 2023.
I le Manaomia ia Iloa koluma i le aso 24 o Aokuso, na aoteleina ai e Steve Goldstein valoaga o se "fou"supercycle i le tau o tupe ma tului” mai ia Dario Perkins, pule faatonu mo le tamaoaiga o le lalolagi i le TS Lombard.
O loʻo faʻamoemoeina e Perkins le faʻatupulaia o tului mo taimi uumi, ma fautua mai o le 2020s o le a manaʻomia ai le aufaipisinisi e fai "se auala e sili atu ona iloatino le faʻasoaina o aseta."
O le alu ese mai kamupani e tuʻuina atu auaunaga na puleaina le maketi povi e oʻo atu i le 2021, na ia talitonu o le mea e sili ona aoga o le tuʻufaʻatasia i aseta moni, e aofia ai ma fanua.
Tuʻu i lalo le vaega REIT
O fa'atauga fa'atauga fa'atau fanua e maua mai i le tele o ituaiga, ae o le elemene autu latou te pasi atu i le tele o tupe maua i tagata e umia sea e fa'atumauina le fa'atulagaina o le REIT fa'aletupe.
E lua vaega lautele o REITs: Mortgage REITs, lea e nono mai ai tupe i pisinisi po'o tagata nofo aitalafu ma/po'o teu fa'afaigaluega i mokesi-backed securities, ma equity REITs, lea e umia pisinisi po'o fale nofomau ma lisi atu.
REIT e fa'ata'amilomilo, fa'atasi ai ma tau fa'atatau a'o si'itia tului. O lenei aafiaga e mafai ona faʻapitoa mo REITs mokesi, ona o le pisinisi mokesi-noitupe e faʻagesegese pe a faʻatupulaia tului.
E oʻo mai i le tausaga nei, e oʻo atu ia Aukuso 24, o le S&P 500 fanua faʻatau fale ua paʻu i lalo 15%, ae o le S&P 500 atoa.
SPX
ua pa'u i lalo i le 12%, ma tufatufaga toe teu fa'afaigaluega.
O le faia o se va'aiga umi atu e ono faate'ia ai oe. O le S&P Dow Jones Indices na vavaeeseina le vaega o fanua mai le vaega tau tupe i le 2016. Ae afai tatou te vavalalata i le vaega o pisinisi a le S&P 500 REIT mo se fuataga umi o le faatinoga, o le 20-tausaga averesi tausaga faaletausaga ua 9.9%, teisi i luma. o le S&P 500's 20-tausaga averesi toe faafoi o le 9.8%.
REITs i vaega
O ituaiga REIT eseese e alu i ta'amilosaga tau tamaoaiga eseese. Mo se faʻataʻitaʻiga, o REITs faletalimalo ma o latou tagata nofoia na matua pagatia i le amataga o le faʻamaʻi o le coronavirus, amata i le tapunia faʻapitoa o pisinisi femalagaaʻi i le afa muamua o le 2020.
O le tele o REITs o loʻo taulaʻi atu i le fale teu oloa ma logistics, lea na faʻamanuiaina mai le faʻaluaina o le tau o le lisi o le tausaga i tausaga talu ai, e tusa ai ma le Vikram Malhotra, o se pule faʻatonu mo fanua faʻatau i Mizuho.
Ae o le Amazon.com Inc.
AMZN
fai mai i lona fa'asalalauga fa'aletupe o le kuata muamua ia Aperila ina ua uma ona faaluaina le tele o lona faʻataunuʻuina fesoʻotaʻiga i le na o le lua tausaga, ua "le toe tuliloaina le malosi faaletino poʻo le aufaigaluega" ma "ua taulaʻi tutusa i le faʻaleleia atili o le gaosiga ma le faʻaleleia o tau" i ana atinaʻe tuʻuina atu.
I le taimi o se faatalanoaga, na taʻua ai e Malhotra e faapea, ina ua maeʻa le faʻasalalauga a Amazon, o ia ma ana paʻaga na "mataʻituina ma faʻalogo i le maketi o loʻo tuʻuina e Amazon ni fale teu oloa i luga o le maketi sublet."
"O lea na taʻu atu e le tagata sili ona tele i le e-commerce i le maketi e tele naua ma o loʻo faʻamaonia, ma na mafua ai ona faʻaititia le tau o oloa," o lana tala lea.
Prologis Inc.
PLD
o le US REIT pito sili ona tele fa'atau fa'alaua'itele i faleteuoloa ma avanoa fa'atau. O le kamupani na lisiina Amazon, FedEx Corp.
FDX,
Fale Depot Inc.
HD,
Geodis ma Walmart Inc.
WMT
o ana tagata fa'atau e to'alima i le fa'ai'uga o le 2021, fa'atasi ai ma le mautotogi a Amazon i le 24 miliona sikuea mita, po'o le 7% o lona aofa'i.
O sea o Prologis na paʻu i lalo i le 21% mo le 2022 e oʻo ia Aukuso 24, faʻatasi ai ma tufatufaga toe teu faʻafaigaluega. E tusa ma le 2.5%. Prologs ua sauni e maua le Duke Realty Corp.
DRE
e ala i o se fefa'ataua'iga uma e tusa ma le $26 piliona ina ua faalauiloa ia Iuni.
O Mizuho o loʻo i ai se tulaga faʻaituau i luga o Prologis, lea na taʻua e Malhotra e "leai se maliega." E mautinoa lava - i totonu o le 17 tagata suʻesuʻe na suʻesuʻeina e FactSet, 13 fuaina sea o se "faʻatau" poʻo le tutusa. O isi o fa'ailoga e le tutusa.
Na ia faʻapea mai o Mizuho o loʻo mataʻituina le aufaipisinisi faʻapitoa lona tolu, pei ole XPO Logistics Inc.
XPO,
FedEx ma United Parcel Service Inc.
lugā
mo fa'ailoga o le fa'agesegese o mana'oga pe a matua pa'u le tamaoaiga.
Faatasi ai ma mea uma na fai mai, atonu e i ai se laina siliva mo le faleteuoloa / logistics REITs: Malhotra faʻamoemoe le faʻatupulaia o le lisi i le avanoa e faʻagesegese i le "ogatotonu i numera tasi maualuga" mai le tulaga o loʻo i ai nei i luga ole 10%. Fai mai le Matagaluega o Leipa o le Consumer Price Index ia Iulai na faʻaalia ai le 8.5% faʻaopoopoga mai le tausaga na muamua atu. Na faʻaleleia lena mai le 9.1% i le masina talu ai. Atonu e le o se fa'alavelave tele le fa'amoemoe e mafai e tagata fa'atau fale teu oloa a le REIT ona fa'atumauina le fa'atuputeleina o a latou lisi e fa'afetaui pe fa'ato'ilalo le saoasaoa o le tau o le tau.
O le mea lea e sau ai lou lava manatu, e faʻatatau i au lava suʻesuʻega. Mata o le fa'aauau pea o fa'atauga i luga ole laiga ma le mana'omia mo le fa'aolaina vave e mafai ai e Prologis ma ana tagata tauva ona fa'asili i luga i le isi lima i le 10 tausaga? Prologis '24 tausaga le aofaʻi atoa e ui o Aukuso 138 e 85% (faʻatusatusa i le 500% mo le S&P XNUMX), e oʻo lava i le tosoina tele o lenei tausaga.
Su'esu'eina le tutusa REITs
Ina ia vaʻavaʻai lautele i faʻatauga faʻatauga faʻatau fanua faʻatau a Amerika, na matou amata i le 185 o loʻo aofia i le Russell 3000 Index.
AUALA.
O lenei faʻasinomaga e fai ma sui o le 98% o US stocks, e tusa ai ma FactSet.
Ona matou vaʻavaʻai lea i faʻatonuga o tupe teufaafaigaluega a REIT taʻitasi ma aveese uma REIT mokesi e aumai le lisi i lalo i le 158 kamupani. Na matou tipi atili i kamupani e 112 lea na maua ai le maliega autasi i le itiiti ifo ma le lima tagata suʻesuʻe na suʻesuʻeina e le FactSet mo tupe fetuutuunai mai galuega i le 2023.
O se auala e fuaina ai le gafatia o le totogiina o tufatufaga a le kamupani o le vaʻavaʻai lea i le fua faʻatatau o tinoitupe - o totoe o tinoitupe pe a maeʻa tupe faʻaalu fuafuaina. Mo REITs, o tupe mai fa'agaioiga (FFO) - o se fua e le o se GAAP - e masani ona fa'aaogaina. E fa'aopoopo e le FFO le fa'aitiitiga ma le fa'aitiitiga (aitema e leai ni tupe) i tupe maua, ae le aofia ai tupe maua mai le fa'atau atu o meatotino. Fa'aopoopo tupe mai fa'agaioiga (AFFO) e fa'agasolo atili, fa'amama tupe fa'aalu e fa'amoemoeina e fa'atumauina ai le tulaga lelei o tupe teu fa'afaigaluega.
Afai tatou te vaevaeina le AFFO fuafuaina a le kamupani i lona tau sea o loʻo i ai nei, o loʻo i ai le tatou fua faʻatatau o le AFFO. E mafai ona fa'atusa lea ma le fa'asoa o lo'o iai nei e va'ai ai pe o iai le "headroom" mo nisi fa'aopoopoga - fa'amoemoe tele le potu ulu.
Faatasi ai ma le 112 REITs o loʻo totoe, 104 totogi tufatufaga ma faʻatatau i le 2023 potu ulu o le itiiti ifo i le 1.00% - o le matou tipi mulimuli lea.
Na matou tuʻuina le 104 REITs i ni vaega lautele se valu. E le faigofie i taimi uma, aua o le REIT e mafai ona matua fa'avasegaina. O lea la o vaega o se taumafaiga e tuʻu taʻitasi REIT i se vaega e tusa ai ma lana faʻatonuga sili ona mamafa. Ona matou tu'ufa'atasia teisi atu i le iva vaega lautele ma fa'avasega i latou e fa'atatau i le 2023 AFFO fua mai.
Mo se faʻataʻitaʻiga, o kamupani teu oloa / faʻatau oloa o loʻo i totonu o le vaega " alamanuia". O le a tatou amata i lena.
Industrial REITs
O REIT nei e 10 na pasia le lau, ma le maualuga o le AFFO faʻamoemoeina mo le 2023:
Kiliki i luga o fa'ailoga mo nisi fa'amatalaga e uiga i kamupani ta'itasi, e aofia ai fa'amatalaga pisinisi. Ona faitau Tomi Kilgore's fa'amatalaga au'ili'ili i le tamaoaiga o fa'amatalaga o lo'o maua fua ile MarketWatch quote page.
Soifua lelei
O REIT uma ia e iva o lo'o lisiina atu meatotino mo le soifua maloloina ma pasia le lau. O lenei vaega e le aofia ai kamupani e taulaʻi i fale sinia:
Nofo
O lenei vaega e aofia ai REITs e iai fale nofo tasi-aiga po'o le tele o aiga, fa'apea fo'i ma fale faufale ma fale matutua. O REITs nei e 10 na pasia le lau:
Faletalimalo ma fale faafiafia
O REIT nei e valu o lo'o lisiina atu faletalimalo ma/po'o fale fa'afiafia ma pasia le lau:
Ofisa
O REIT nei e 10 o loʻo umia fale ofisa na pasia le lau:
taʻitasi
O REIT nei e 10 e masani ona lisiina atu fale faʻatau na pasia le lau:
fesootaiga
O kamupani uma nei e lima na pasia le lau na lisiina atu meatotino o fesoʻotaʻiga, pe, i le tulaga o Outfront Media Inc.
OUT,
laupapa fa'ailoga:
Nofoaga fa'amaumauga
O nei faʻamaumauga-center REITs e tolu na pasia le lau:
Taofi a le tagata lava ia
Mo la matou vaega mulimuli, e lima REIT e teu ai le tagata na pasia le lau:
Afai e te fiafia i le REIT avanoa, e tatau ona e faia lau oe lava suʻesuʻega ma teu i lou mafaufau au sini faʻafaigaluega - tuputupu aʻe, tupe maua poʻo mea uma e lua - ma sauni e tumau mo le umi, o lona uiga o ni nai tausaga.
Faatasi ai ma le REIT o loʻo lisiina i luga o laulau, i luga, o Malhotra o loʻo i ai le "faʻatau" faʻatatau ile Ventas Inc.
VTR,
Well Tower Inc.
Vaʻai,
Falema'i Meatotino Trust Inc.
MPW,
Paramount Group Inc.
PGRE
ma Duke Realty (lea o loʻo fefaʻatauaʻi nei i le laina ma Prologis, i le faʻamoemoe e maeʻa le tuʻufaʻatasiga).
Ina ua fesiligia pe o le a le mea e tutusa ai le REIT, fai mai Malhotra: "O kamupani nei, i le avea ai ma tagata taʻitoʻatasi, matou te talitonu o le a tumau pea le tau."
Na ia taʻua foʻi e faʻamanuiaina uma mai faiga faʻavae, e aofia ai, mo le soifua maloloina REITs, le matua o le faitau aofaʻi.
Fa'alogo mai ia Ray Dalio ile MarketWatch's Manatu Fou Sili i Tupe Fa'afiafia i le aso 21 ma le 22 o Setema i Niu Ioka. O le paionia hedge-fund e iai ni manatu malolosi i le mea e agai i ai le tamaoaiga.
Punavai: https://www.marketwatch.com/story/these-dividend-stocks-can-protect-you-as-the-federal-reserve-slows-the-economy-11661443792?siteid=yhoof2&yptr=yahoo