Aisea e mafai ai e lenei Bitcoin Bearish Divergence ona sipelaina le malaia mo le BTC Rally

A quant has explained how this bearish divergence in Bitcoin on-chain data can lead to a short-term correction in the price.

Bitcoin Short-Term Holder SOPR Has Been Slowing Down Despite Price Going Up

E pei ona faʻamatalaina e se suʻesuʻe i le CryptoQuant pou, o loʻo faʻatupuina se va i le mana faʻatau o tagata e umia taimi pupuu ma le tau BTC. O le faʻailoga talafeagai iinei o le "Tupe Maua Tupe Maua Fuafua” (SOPR), which tells us whether investors in the Bitcoin market are selling their coins at a profit or at a loss right now.

A sili atu le tau o lenei metric nai lo le 1, o lona uiga o le maketi atoa o loʻo iloa se aofaiga o tupe mama i le taimi nei. I le isi itu, o tau o lo'o i lalo ifo o le fa'ailoga e fa'ailoa mai ai o lo'o va'aia e le tagata o lo'o umia se tupe gau i le taimi nei. E masani lava, o le faʻailoga e tutusa lelei ma le 1 o loʻo faʻaalia ai le aufaipisinisi o loʻo naʻo le gau-e oʻo lava i a latou tupe teufaafaigaluega.

O le "tagata e umia puupuu” (STH) group is a Bitcoin cohort that includes all investors who bought their coins less than 155 days ago. The STH SOPR thus measures the profit ratio of selling being done by these holders. To properly assess the behavior of this group, the analyst is using a “rate of change” (ROC) oscillator for the indicator. Here is a chart comparing this momentum oscillator with the BTC price over the last few months:

Looks like the metric has been going down in recent days | Source: O le CryptoQuant

As the above graph shows, the ROC of the Bitcoin STH SOPR had been in deep red when the FTX pa'u na tupu, ma fautua mai o nei tagata teufaafaigaluegaina tupe na gauai atu i ai ma iloa ai se aofaiga tele o tupe leiloa. Ae ui i lea, ona o le tau o le BTC ua faʻasolosolo malie mai le maualalo, o le ROC ua avea ma lanu meamata. O lona uiga o le STHs na fa'atau i le taimi o le maualalo o lo'o fa'atau atu mo tupe mama, ma o'o atu ai i luga ole SOPR.

Bitcoin has continued to see an uptrend recently, but strangely, the STH SOPR ROC has been dropping off. This could be a sign that not many STHs were able to buy during these lows, hinting that their purchasing power is low at the moment. If they had been buying through this rally, they would have continued to harvest more and more profits as the price goes up, but that has clearly not been the case.

Such a divergence also formed in the relief rally seen earlier in the bear market, as the quant has marked in the chart. “Last time, this situation led to a bearish correction,” notes the analyst. “If this alignment repeats, then this time, Bitcoin may correct to the $16,500-$17,000 range.”

BTC si'itia i luga | Punavai: BTCUSD luga TradingView

At the time of writing, Bitcoin’s price floats around $17,700, up 5% in the last week.